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Got To Be ‘Zeen’ To Be Believed

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The biggest weekend of Flat racing ever staged in Ireland.

It’s a bold claim, but an entirely justified one as the far-sighted decision to concertina Champion Stakes Day and the St Leger into one two day jamboree finally comes to fruition in a much awaited blitz, featuring no less than five Group 1’s, and prize money to make the very best sit up and take notice.

‘Don’t ‘cha just love it when a plan comes together?’ is hopefully a line the executive from HRI, Leopardstown and the Curragh will be borrowing from Hannibal Smith after a triumphant Champions Weekend, and the stage is set for it to kick off in style.

Live with us on RTE2 this afternoon the coverage kicks off at 5.00pm, and we’re bringing you four of the best from Leopardstown as the ever-popular Foxrock track prepares to welcome a massive crowd.

It’s a day not short on talking points, with Aidan O’Brien only 3/1 to win both the Group 1’s on the card, with Yorkshire Oaks winner Tapestry his big hope in the Matron Stakes at 5.45pm, before the outstanding three-year-old middle distance colt of 2014, a certain Australia, sprinkles his stardust in the Irish Champion Stakes at 6.50pm.

Not shy on a bit of publicity Paddy Power have already paid out antepost bets on 1/3 shot Australia, in a move the firm claimed had set them back somewhere in the region of €75,000.

Regrettably Paddy himself rebutted my suggestion the offer might be backdated when I phoned him yesterday morning, but you can’t blame a man for trying!

The live action kicks off at 5.15pm with the 1m 2f Group 3 KPMG Enterprise Stakes, which features a horse who prior to racing this day a year ago was already 10/1 favourite for the 2014 Investec Derby.

That was the price with bookies BetVictor about Free Eagle, who had halved Dermot Weld’s son of High Chaparral from an opening quote of 20’s following constant support after he’d routed Orchestra in his debut maiden win over a mile at Leopardstown.

Of course that was before the 2/5 shot had been eaten for breakfast and dispatched by a startling six lengths by none other than Australia on this card 365 days ago, when the pair locked horns in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Trial Stakes.

That reverse doesn’t look so shabby given Australia’s subsequent multiple Group 1-winning exploits, but Free Eagle hasn’t seen the track since, missing for a total of 371 days.

That his trainer keeps the faith with a horse he has entered in Ascot’s Group 1 Champion Stakes looks significant, but perhaps the 11/10 best price at the time of writing is just too skinny to recommend an investment.

He’s up against another returning stablemate in the shape of Rock Critic (off for even longer – 381 days), top-rated Group 3 Royal Whip hero Hall Of Mirrors for Aidan O’Brien, plus Desmond Stakes runner-up Brendan Bracken for Ger Lyons.

These things can come back to bite you on the backside, but if I was a bookmaker heading to Leopardstown this afternoon the one horse I’d be looking to lay is Brendan Bracken, based firmly on his record in races beyond a mile.

Four times he’s been to the well, producing results of 6th, 4th, 6th, and 12th of 12.

That doesn’t look too promising to me for anyone considering backing him.

Next up is the Group 1 Mile €300,000 Coolmore Fastnet Rock Matron Stakes, where we look set for a real treat.

The big two where the betting markets are concerned are old rivals Tapestry for Aidan O’Brien, taking on Clive Brittain’s Rizeena for a fourth time.

They are joined by a terrific supporting cast, constructed of Willie McCreery’s Prix Maurice de Gheest third Fiesolana, talented French trainer Henri-Alex Pantall’s recent Clarefontaine and Düsseldorf winner Kenhope, Falmouth fourth Purr Along, as well as Dermot Weld’s Flying jib.

It’s great to see a French trainer supporting this meeting – Pantall is the same man who won the 2007 Prix de Diane (French Oaks) with West Wind – and more than knows the time of day.

Don’t forget hat-trick seeker Kenhope went off 5/2 favourite for this race 12 months ago but came up short, managing only fourth.

She’s on a roll at present having won her last two with ease, but this is a big jump back up in class, and as such it looks as though it’ll be slugged out by the heavyweights Tapestry and Rizeena.

Although it’s a home game two things concern me about Tapestry:

She was unlucky not to win the Irish Oaks but very much made up for it at York when beating the mighty Taghrooda, but those two outstanding pieces of form are over a mile and a half.

Dropping back to a mile her form is nowhere near as good!

Stonewall last in the 2000 Guineas, and only 6th in the Coronation Stakes doesn’t fill me with enthusiasm, and that’s before you look at her head-to-head record against Rizeena.

It’s 3-0 to Rizeena, and there’s no hard luck story involved:

1 Sept 2013 – Moyglare Stud Stakes (7f) 1st Rizeena, 2nd Tapestry

4 May 2014 – QIPCO 1000 Guineas (1m) 7th Rizeena, 17th Tapestry

20 June 2014 – Coronation Stakes (1m) 1st Rizeena, 6th Tapestry

If that’s not enough we know well Rizeena isn’t fazed by travelling overseas, trip and ground are perfect, and she arrives here off the back of a very solid effort against the colts in the Jacques Le Marois.

Back against her own sex I’m struggling to see why William Hill make her half a point bigger than Tapestry at 5/2.

Elsewhere on the card the Group 2 Clipper Boomerang Mile is a brilliant race and looks very tough to call, but there will be shockwaves if Australia is felled in the big one.

Back home it is of course St Leger day at Doncaster, and in the big one I’ve had a few quid each way on Andrew Balding topically named Scotland.

He’s got work to do to reverse placings on this year’s form with a number of today’s rivals, but equally you can argue he’s crying out for this longer trip based on his powerful finishes at Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood, and if there’s a surprise in store then at 20/1 it might be him.

Good luck!

Saturday’s best bets:

3.50 Doncaster – Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes – 11 Scotland (each way) @ 20/1 (Betfred, BetVictor or Paddy Power)

5.45 Leopardstown – Coolmore Fastnet Rock Matron Stakes – 8 Rizeena (win) @ 5/2 (William Hill)

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